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Prediction for CME (2024-02-21T18:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-02-21T18:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29338/-1
CME Note: Wide partial halo CME to the west, associated with a beautiful filament eruption seen after 2024-02-21T17:30Z in AIA 304 traversing the western part of the disk and later as prominence off the western limb in SUVI 304. There is also an area of deep dimming and post eruptive arcades centered at (~N05W40) and stretching along 40th longitude (from lat -3 to 20) in AIA 193 associated with this eruption.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-24T16:16Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-02-25T09:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.67
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2024 Feb 22 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
...

An eruptive filament was observed starting around 21/1500 UTC in the
northwest quadrant and an eruptive prominence was observed around
21/1600 UTC on the southeast limb. Analysis and modeling showed the bulk
of the ejecta being ahead of Earth's orbit. However, a glancing
influence remains possible on 25 Feb.

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Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 989
Issue Time: 2024 Feb 22 1917 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Feb 23:  None (Below G1)   Feb 24:  None (Below G1)   Feb 25:  G1 (Minor)

--------
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2024 Feb 23 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
...
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 23-Feb 25 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 23-Feb 25 2024

             Feb 23       Feb 24       Feb 25
00-03UT       1.67         1.67         3.00     
03-06UT       1.33         1.33         2.00     
06-09UT       1.33         1.33         2.00     
09-12UT       1.33         1.33         3.33     
12-15UT       1.33         1.33         4.00     
15-18UT       1.33         1.33         4.67 (G1)
18-21UT       1.67         1.67         4.00     
21-00UT       1.67         1.67         3.33

Lead Time: 60.98 hour(s)
Difference: -16.73 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2024-02-22T03:17Z

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